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Meksika Iqtisodiyoti

1994 crisis
2020 crisis
2008 crisis
Employment gap
13
17.5
17.6
17.6
17.7
17.7
17.8
17.8
17.9
17.9
en
e.-05
se
p
.-05
may.
-06
en
e.-07
se
p
.-07
may.
-08
en
e.-09
se
p
.-09
may.
-10
en
e.-11
se
p
.-11
may.
-12
en
e.-13
se
p
.-13
may.
-14
en
e.-15
se
p
.-15
may.
-16
en
e.-17
se
p
.-17
may.
-18
en
e.-19
se
p
.-19
may.
-20
en
e.-21
se
p
.-21
Source: Own calculations using data from INEGI.
Total Employment
Source: Own calculations using data from INEGI and IMSS.
Formal Employment, Registered at IMSS
The Mexican Economy in 2022: Outlook and Challenges
Formal Employment (IMSS) Loss
Cumulated variation since the onset of each crises, %, s.a.
•
Total employment already reached a level consistent with its long-run trend. In
contrast, formal employment (registered at IMSS) still exhibits a gap.
•
The recovery of formal employment (IMSS) has occurred at a higher pace
relative to previous crises.
•
Although formal employment (IMSS) has already recovered its pre-pandemic
level, economic policy should aim at recovering the trend level, that is, the
number of jobs that would have existed in the absence of the pandemic.
Trend (05-16)
Total Employment (natural log)
16.2
16.3
16.4
16.5
16.6
16.7
16.8
16.9
17
en
e.-05
se
p
.-05
may.
-06
en
e.-07
se
p
.-07
may.
-08
en
e.-09
se
p
.-09
may.
-10
en
e.-11
se
p
.-11
may.
-12
en
e.-13
se
p
.-13
may.
-14
en
e.-15
se
p
.-15
may.
-16
en
e.-17
se
p
.-17
may.
-18
en
e.-19
se
p
.-19
may.
-20
en
e.-21
se
p
.-21
IMSS employment (natural logarithm)
Trend 09-16

INFORMACIÓN
CONFIDENCIAL
Estado: En proceso / Versión final
Unidad Administrativa:
Fecha de última actualización:
Fecha de impresión (si aplica):
Consumption
•
A gap remains in private consumption at the
aggregate level.

Services continue to lag strongly compared to
February 2020 levels, reflecting the effect of the
pandemic.

Consumption of goods has already recovered.
However, the implied higher demand has been
satisfied with a higher proportion of imports.
•
Unlike 2008-2009, a crisis of nondurable goods
consumption is not currently happening.
•
The
favorable
performance
of
nondurable
consumption may be due to:

Remittances

Payroll

Consumer confidence

Social transfers
14
Private Consumption
Consumption of Nondurable Goods
First 9 months of each year
4
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
1993
1994
1996
1997
1999
2000
2002
2003
2005
2006
2008
2009
2011
2012
2014
2015
2017
2018
2020
2021
Total private consumption (natural
logarithm)
trend 09-16
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
en
e.-19
ab
r.
-19
ju
l.-
19
o
ct.-19
en
e.-20
ab
r.
-20
ju
l.-
20
o
ct.-20
en
e.-21
ab
r.
-21
ju
l.-
21
o
ct.-21
National goods
National services
Imported goods
February, 2020=100
Real private consumption
Source: Own calculations using
data from INEGI.
80
85
90
95
100
105
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Consumption of non-durable goods
(index)
Index, 2019 = 100
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
t-3
t-2
t-1
t
t+
1
t+
2
Financial crisis
Pandemics crisis
Index, 1 year before crisis = 100
The Mexican Economy in 2022: Outlook and Challenges

INFORMACIÓN
CONFIDENCIAL
Estado: En proceso / Versión final
Unidad Administrativa:
Fecha de última actualización:
Fecha de impresión (si aplica):
Investment
•
Mexico’s investment shows a lack of dynamism in
the medium term, with a significant deviation
from its long-run trend.

The investment lack of dynamism started to be
evident around 2015.
•
Private investment follows the same pattern as
total investment.
•
Public investment remains way below its historical
maximum level. However, public investment
started to grow during last year reverting a
decreasing trend that lasted for more than a
decade.

During the pandemic period, public investment has
performed better than private investment.
15
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.9
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
Investment (natural logaritm)
Trend 93-16
Investment in Real Terms
Index, 2019 4Q = 100
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
Public
Private
Million of Pesos of 2013
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
Investment Gap Relative to Trend
Source: Own calculations using data from INEGI.
The Mexican Economy in 2022: Outlook and Challenges
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
en
e. 2019
ab
r.
2019
ju
l.
2019
o
ct. 2019
en
e. 2020
ab
r.
2020
ju
l.
2020
o
ct. 2020
en
e. 2021
ab
r.
2021
ju
l.
2021
Public (index)
Private (index)

INFORMACIÓN
CONFIDENCIAL
Estado: En proceso / Versión final
Unidad Administrativa:
Fecha de última actualización:
Fecha de impresión (si aplica):
Bank credit and private investment
Financing Granted by Commercial Banks
Individuals with Business Activity
16
Real values, s. a.
13
13.5
14
14.5
15
15.5
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
Natural logarithm
Trend (05-16)
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Gap individuals with business activity
(05-16)
Gap non-financial companies (05-16)
Gap private gross fixed capital formation
(05-16)
10
10.5
11
11.5
12
12.5
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
Natural logarithm
Trend (05-16)
Gap Relative to Trend, %
•
Credit to firms lags behind its trend
trajectory.

This lag started to be clear after
2017.

This lag is more pronounced in the
case of credit for individuals with
business activity.
•
The investment gap has increased
since 2016-2017 in line with the
credit gap.
Source: Own calculations
using data from Banco de
México.
The Mexican Economy in 2022: Outlook and Challenges
Non-financial Firms

México's monetary policy stance at the beginning of 2022
•
The deviation of headline inflation from the central bank’s target in Mexico reached similar levels to that in Chile, Hungary and Peru.
Nevertheless, at the start of 2022, Mexico had one of the least accommodative monetary stances in the world.
18
The Mexican Economy in 2022: Outlook and Challenges
Note: Prepared with information from the Report “Indicadores de Política Monetaria e Inflación Mundial” as of 10-14 January 17, 2022 from Banco de México.
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Braz
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Interest rate at the beginning of 2022
Ex-ante Real Interest Rate at the Beginning of 2022
%
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Ch
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In
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Un
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R
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Braz
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Tu
rk
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Deviation from target
Monetary policy rate
Mexico's deviation

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