Climate risk country profile

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CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: UZBEKISTAN
Precipitation
In contrast to the clear trend in average temperatures, 
average annual precipitation has not shown statistically 
significant changes in Uzbekistan in recent decades. 
A slight decrease in average annual precipitation was 
observed between 1950 and 2013. Observations from 
the Tien Shan and Gissar-Alai mountain ranges exhibit 
some variation between seasons, with a slight increase 
in winter months (December to February) being offset 
by slight decreases in other months of the year.
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El Niño 
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a strong influence over 
multi-year dry and wet climate variability.
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Climate Future
Overview
The main data source for the World Bank Group’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) is the Coupled 
Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, which are utilized within the Fifth Assessment Report 
(AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), providing estimates of future temperature and 
precipitation. Four Representative Concentration Pathways (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were 
selected and defined by their total radiative forcing (cumulative measure of GHG emissions from all sources) 
pathway and level by 2100. In this analysis, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, the extremes of low and high emissions pathways, 
are the primary focus where RCP2.6 represents a very strong mitigation scenario and RCP8.5 assumes business-
as-usual scenario. For more information, please refer to the 
RCP Database
.
For Uzbekistan, models show a trend of consistent warming despite emissions scenario. However, projections for 
rainfall are highly variable with no statistically significant change over the past decades. In addition, an increase in 
intensity for extreme rainfall events is likely.