Change Your Thinking, Change Your Life: How to Unlock Your Full Potential for Success and Achievement

PRACTICE CRISIS ANTICIPATION
In business consulting, we teach a way of thinking called “crisis an-
ticipation.” I encourage decision makers to look six months to a
year into the future and ask the question, “What are some of the
negative things that could happen that would derail our plans? Of
all of them, what are the very worst things that could happen?”
We then make a list of all the different setbacks or unexpected
emergencies that could occur that would threaten the enterprise.
For example: A competitor could come out with a new product or
service that was better and/or cheaper than ours. Interest rates
could go up. Government could place new taxes and regulations on
our activities. Costs of fuel or raw materials could increase. A key
person or persons within the organization could depart for some
reason. A key customer or customers could leave and go to a com-
petitor. Competitors could cut their prices below costs in order to
take business away. The economy could tip into recession and the
overall market could shrink dramatically.
In each of these cases, the ability of the company to respond
quickly and effectively could determine its very survival. These pos-
sible reversals and setbacks should be thought through in advance.
The best rule is “no surprises!”
Royal Dutch/Shell of the Netherlands has one of the most
complete forward planning processes of any company in the world.
It has developed over 600 scenarios to deal with problems that
might occur around the world in areas where it has oil and gas op-