Bu siness skills: b et ter me etings 1 — 21 business englisch bu sin es s e n g L is

YES
“The UK is still one of the biggest
economies in the world”
Joshua Mackenzie-Lawrie
NO
“The people we trade with most today are 
still those closest to us geographically”
John Van Reenen
JOSHUA MACKENZIE-LAWRIE
is senior research
executive at
Get Britain Out 
(https://getbritainout.
org)
agreement: strike an ~ 
,
eine Vereinbarung 
treffen 
bargaining power
[(bA:gInIN]
,
Verhandlungsmacht
customs union
,
Zollunion
diverge 
[daI(v§:dZ]
,
abweichen; 
hier:
sich 
(ab)lösen
drive a hard bargain
,
hart verhandeln
face sth.
,
etw. gegenüberstehen
fintech 
[(fIntek]
,
Finanztechnologie
GDP (gross domestic 
product)
,
BIP (Bruttoinlands- 
produkt)
hub 
[hVb]
,
Zentrum
in line with
,
 
in Abstimmung mit
invisible
[In(vIzEb&l]
,
unsichtbar
prospective
[prE(spektIv]
,
künftig (möglich)
red tape
,
Bürokratie
senior research executive
,
etwa:
Forschungs- 
leiter(in) 
single market
,
Binnenmarkt
sovereignty
[(sQvrEnti]
,
Souveränität
suit sb.’s interests
[su:t]
,
jmds. Interessen 
entsprechen
targeted
[(tA:gItId]
,
zielgerichtet
tariff
,
Zoll
worthwhile 
,
lohnend
As part of the EU, the UK has 
enjoyed unrestricted access 
to the largest single market on 
earth, with the second-largest 
GDP in the world and a popula-
tion of around half a billion peo-
ple. When it exits the customs
union and the single market, 
there will be barriers to trade 
with the EU. It will cost more for the UK to export to the EU, 
and EU imports into the UK will be more expensive.
The average tariff from the European Union for the rest of the 
world is about three per cent. But some products, such as cars, 
have a tariff of about ten per cent. For certain agricultural prod-
ucts, it’s as high as 40 or 50 per cent. These sectors will be hit hard. 
The UK also faces non-tariff barriers: the rules, regulations and 
red tape that Mrs Thatcher called the “invisible barriers to trade”. 
Outside the single market, these will involve high costs 
for UK businesses. As the UK diverges further, as regulations 
change over time, these costs will increase. Foreign investment 
will also fall. One of the reasons that countries invested in the 
UK was to get access to the rest of the EU. That’s why a lot of big 
banks located in the City of London and why Japanese motor 
vehicle producers built factories here. 
The EU is continually making new trade deals. In future, the 
UK will no longer enjoy automatic access to these deals. It has a 
lot less bargaining power than within the EU because it’s a much 
smaller market. The “new” UK–Japan trade deal is basically the 
same agreement that the EU had already struck with Japan — 
it’s better for the UK in one or two respects, but worse in many 
other respects. 
Despite the internet and globalization, the people we trade 
with most today are still those closest to us geographically. The 
new trade barriers with the EU will be much more costly than 
the benefits from reducing barriers to Australia or India. A trade 
deal with the US, for example, will add only 0.1 to 0.2 per cent 
to the UK’s GDP. And countries such as the US and China are 
going to drive a hard bargain. It’s unrealistic to think that pro-
spective new UK trade deals can compensate for the cost of 
leaving the EU.
JOHN VAN REENEN
is professor of economics 
at the London School of 
Economics and Political 
Science
(https://cep.lse.ac.uk)