Audit and economical analysis

Key words and phrases:financial elements,assets, capital and liabilities, income, expencess, cash flow, internal and external factors, probability and reliability of forecasting indicators,predictable shortcomings.

Purpose and analysis functions of financial statement elements asset, capital and liability forecasting

The purpose of business entities is to profit and is summed up at the end of this process. Therefore, the key condition of the issue is the use of assets for future economic benefits. Significantly different from the types of assets in the future, it can be seen that these assets are distributed in the long-term and current assets. However, the frequency of this process varies depending on the type of activity. How much of the money you spend is definitely a matter of time, and demanding time intervals also require predictions. By way of forecasting, there is an increasing need for resources, assets and liabilities, income and expense, profit and loss, future cash flows, additional funding sources and solutions.The prospect of future expectations is not only a change in the impact of factors directly associated with the enterprise, but also more external factors affect it. Taking into account the possibility of achieving a higher standard of excellence by reducing the risk of future outcomes, the forecasting provides accurate identification and management of future financial condition and financial results, profit or loss of businesses.

Estimation
1. On balance of assets and liabilities.

2. Income and expense balance.

3. Balance of funds and incomes.

These are the financial statements that give the basis for the estimation of the financial position. Current annual financial statements serve as a basis for economical and financial forecasts for long-term forecasts. All elements of the financial statements are based on reorganization based on the set targets for the company's future development.on of the financial condition of the enterprises is based on the following financial statements.

At the end of the projection, the estimated balance of accounts, the estimated financial results, the estimated cash flow statement are formulated and these sources are considered as an important source of financial performance. The analysis of the financial condition is designed to prioritize the future financial condition of the entity and its developments, financial implications and cash flows, and to formulate the information needed to prepare management decisions for future economic benefits.The main objectives of the financial forecasting analysis are:

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  carrying out calculations on the financial status, financial results, profit and loss of the company, expected cash;
  
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  future expectations of assets, capital and liabilities of the business
  Establishing an accounting balance by estimating and evaluating the changes in the entity's financial position; - Estimation of the financial results and estimation of changes in its key units by estimating future expectations of profits and losses, profit and loss of the entity; - Establishing and evaluating the balance of cash flows by determining the necessity and excess of resources on the future income streamsandoutflows;
  The forecast is an important issue in improving future financial condition of the enterprise, raising economic well-being, and optimizing the flow of cash flow. Propagation of financial statements involves the forecasting of assets, capital and liabilities, financial incurred, profit or loss that are key elements of the project.
  Based on the prediction of financial statements, it is possible to determine the future assets, capital and liabilities, financial results, profit and loss of the entity, and thereby enable them to establish their business and business plan and budget. The forecasting of the elements of the financial statement lets you answer the following important questions: -What and when? What are the issues? - How much money does a business need to earn on cash flows? - When will this money be needed?What forms of capital are attracted to enterprises (in the form of capital increase or debt capital)?
  

What is the financial condition of the enterprise for the following periods?

Scalable predictions of the elements of a financial statement are made in the following sequence:

- determination of the forecast period;

- preparation of financial statements;

- formation of calculation tables;

- estimation of profits and losses;

- prediction of cash flows;

- formation of the required value of financing;

- formation of the required value of financing;

predicting economic uncertainty;

- forecasting of the balance sheet;

- preparation of final conclusions and recommendations.

In the context of increasing competition and competitiveness, the range of those who want to predict financial reports is expanded. Therefore, based on their predictive financial reports, their importance has been enhanced by long-term partnerships, partnerships, and sales of shares. Especially, to know the financial condition of the institution and the expectations of the results of crediting periods provided by credit institutions. As it can be seen, banks are primarily concerned with the history of enterprises, but also about the continuity and duration of economic activity, the financial status and the future expectations of the results. At the same time, we must not forget that in the futureThe most reliable sources of expected outcomes can be absolutely clear of certain expectations and shortcomings. This is done by addressing the risk assessment. Asset, capital and liability forecasting

The most important object of financial forecasting is the bookkeeping balance. Its key elements include assets, capital and liabilities. Future expectations of the current status of the entity are planned through accounting estimates. The following sequence of actions will be taken to compile the forecast model.

Accounting balance structure:

Where: A-Assets; K-Capital; M Responsibilities; The Extended Structure of the Accounting Balance on Liquidity and Financing Sources UMA + JA (INVENTORY + DM + PM) = OMM + M (UMM + QMM + KM) Where: UMA - Long-term assets; JA-current assets; INVENTORY-branded material reserves;  DM - Accounts Receivable;  PM Money;  IPC - source of own resources; UMM - Long term liabilities;  Short-term liabilities of QMM;  KMC creditors' liabilities. Current accountability of the entity can be used as a basis for forecasting. Changes in balance sheet assets and liabilities, income and expense, and cash flows can be accomplished through structural adjustments, for example by the increase in production and sales. The scenarios of change in demand for additional funding will be determined accordingly. Proposed assets can be small or equal to those that are predictable. QMB = Forecasted assets-Forecasted passwords <= 0 Where: QMB Additional Financing Sources; Predictable actives; BP-Forecasted Passives. However, the growth of turnover assets does not always allow for the adequacy of funding sources. That is why additional funding sources are needed. The need for additional funding can be determined by the cash flow structure: PO = Tf + Am - A + M  Where: Tf - Undefined benefits Am-Depreciation A-Assets M-Responsibilities The forecasting algorithm is implemented in the following sequence.

1. The stage of formation of Axbort resources. Financial statements are available as information sources. Explain the cost structure and their significant changes.

2. Coefficients shall be calculated in the calculation. The ratio of expenses, the conversion rate of turnover assets, the conversion rate of the creditor liabilities is determined. Kx = X / ST Circulating assets circulation Ka = AA / ST * D Circulation of credit liabilities.

3. Sales volume prediction. It is determined on the basis of development trends and the technology of rope.

4. Determination of Financial Lifecycle in Periods. Based on the company's characteristics and strategies.

5. Predicting the financial statements. The analytical balance is based on accounting balance sheet, financial results and cash flow statement. Forecasting the balance sheet is the most difficult and complicated process. This is because the financial statements and the financial position of the entity are reflected in this report. Its prediction is often due to the increase in revenue from sales.
Where:  TFB-predicted distributed profit; TF-current unearned profit; BST-estimated sales revenue; TF * - Profit rate profit (sales profit / sales proceeds); Dn * -divided use predictive rate of profit is calculated by applying the standard rate to dividend / dividend.

6. It is necessary to calculate how much passivity is required, based on the above mentioned data. Passives the sum of financing (sources of funding) is determined as follows.

7. BPz = SBA - SBP Where: SBA - volume of forecasted assets; SBP is the amount of predicted passivity. The amount of additional liabilities is determined based on the defined formula QP = TQA - MO - TFO Where: QP additional passives; TQA-required assets; Increase of MOPs; TFO - Increased revenue.
Based on the following information, we maintain a bookkeeping balance sheet. 1. Volume of sales of goods in the current period - 5 180 801 340 thousand UZS. 2. Future expectations of the sale of goods will be 7 978 434 064 thousand UZS 3. The expected profit margin in the coming year is 0.1. 4. The expected dividend rate - 0.5. 5. The change in the value of future fixed assets will change according to the amount of revenue.

1. Volume of sales of goods in the current period - 5 180 801 340 thousand UZS.

2. Future expectations of the sale of goods will be 7 978 434 064 thousand UZS

3. Growth of sales proceeds = 7 978 434 064 thousand UZS / 5 180 801 340 thousand UZS = 1.54 Forecast of the balance of payments of JSC "UzbekistonTemirYollari"Summary: The company's current assets amounted to 13,198,104,658 thousand UZS last year and this figure was 24276893065 thousand UZS in the current year. According to the results of the bookkeeping of the growth of sales volumes, the company's assets for the next 2018 can be set at 31672544789 thousand UZS. All the grounds are sufficient. This is because the change in the volume of assets up to 1.54 points is the same. The passive, ie the current portion of its own funds and liabilities, is 26,921,643,122 thousand UZS, which will require further financing of 4750901667 thousand UZS.

Financial outcome estimates characterize the indicators characterizing the effectiveness of the entity: planning and future expectations of revenues and expenses, profit or loss.

The breakdown and cost estimation of the key elements of the financial results are estimated based on the year-on-year growth of the components.

The following main methods can be used in the forecasting of financial results: method of economic analysis; standard method; balanced settlement and cash flow method; multiple choice method;method of economic-mathematical modeling; and other methods.  The following key stages of forecasting financial results can be highlighted: studying the financial results of the undertakings; Development of forecasting options of financial statements on the basis of changes in current plans; identifying the specific needs of the business entity for financial resources; prediction of funding sources (including own and external sources) and their structure; Establishment and maintenance (support) of financial management systems of business entities;

The main indicator of the effectiveness of the undertakings is the profitability of financial efficiency, which is profitability. The formula for calculating it is as follows:

Rk = (Cf: Ox) x 100; Ra = (Cf: A) x 100

Where:

Rk, R - profitability and profitability of assets on net profits;

Sf - net profit;

OK - average annual value of equity capital;

Average annual value of asset A.

Growth in this indicator is tax and income tax, including income taxdepends on many factors in the character. Dyupon formula for the first time in practice is used to analyze the content of the content inventor. R = (Sf / Bk) x (Sf / C) x (T / A) x (A / B) Where: Ts - Net earnings;                A - assets. At the same time, the ratio (Sf / O) of this formula reflects the profitability coefficient (CFR) of net profit for net profit, which represents the ratio of net profit to net profit and sales (revenue) during the period analyzed. These indicators also characterize the profitability of the product sold(W / A) ratio shows the economic activity coefficient. This coefficient reflects the conversion of assets.  (A / B) represents the total amount of assets that corresponds to a UZS equity ratio. The level of utilization of assets, their speed of rotation, sales volumes and profitability of the products sold represent the relationship of all main parameters of the financial and economic activity of the undertaking. Assessment of the economic activity coefficient for evaluation of the role of assets in reproduction. Kxf = Ts / A
Here: KHf - Economic activity coefficient; This indicator characterizes the earnings pertaining to the assets used per UZS. Its growth serves as the basis for the growth (growth) of all other financial indicators. The rational structure of capital placed on assets is also important. Kot = Aa / Kf Where: Rational capital structure of capital; Aa-circulating assets; Kf is all capital used.
Conclusion: The profitability of assets at the enterprise was 5.2% during the current period and 10.9% of its own profitability. Their future (2018) expectations were 8.3 and 21.4 percent, respectively. The company's long-term and short-term commitments in the capital structure to be attracted for the forthcoming period does not represent any problematic aspects of reimbursement of interest payments due to its net profit.  Predicting Cash Flows Other financial statements include cash flow statement information for users of financial statements
to evaluate the ability of the undertaking to attract cash and cash equivalents.  The Cash Flow Statement can also predict future cash outflows of the entity, based on current earnings and benefits (based on their occurrence and formation). Here, of course, changes in each type of activity are of paramount importance. In other words, the cash inflows and outflows of operating activities, investment activities and financial activities are predicted.The effects of all three categories on the movement and status of the money are studied jointly and in a shared way.

Their concentration determines the net change of money during the analysis.

Information about cash flows is necessary to analyze the relationship between the effects of future cash flow forecasts and the effect of net cash flows and the effects of price fluctuations. Fundraising estimates are the most complex and difficult process in the analysis. These factors are mostly determined by the degree of compliance with the payment discipline of external actors. It is not always possible to thoroughly investigate partners, buyers, and suppliers. In the relationship with them, back up your debts issueand the establishment of their funds. Managers should first choose optimal cash flow forecasting methods. This will increase the importance of future revenues and capital growth. First of all, it is necessary to properly choose the cash flow management strategy: - Prepayment of earnings and swaps on the bulk ahead of schedule; - Calculation of net cash (ordinary or deficit) before the beginning of the period; Requirements for short-term and short-term financing should be determined prior to the beginning of the period.   External receivables and creditors' obligations in predicting cash flowsshould be considered as important. The movement of the money linked to the debtor's obligations is calculated on the basis of the following formula: DKB + ST = DKO + PK Where: DKB - the status of the receivables at the beginning of the period for the sale of products (goods, works and services); Proceeds from sales over the period; DKO - the status of receivables at the end of the period of sale of products (goods, works and services);Income from the PK-Period Predicting cash flow is also important for their costs. Its main component is repayment of creditors' debts.In forecasting cash flows, it is necessary to compare cash flow forecasts.

 In terms of forecasting and forecasting of cash flows in the context of financing, the volume of attraction of short and long-term bank loans for each period is studied.

It is well known that net profit can be set by the Board of Directors, based on the amount of financial results obtained in joint-stock companies. In the forecasting of funds, these payments and their quantities are definitely needed.
Conclusion: Cash inflow from operating activities for the current year amounted to 4 811 211 052 thousand UZS, and their expenses amounted to 3 490 040 525 thousand UZS. Net cash ratios 4,811,211,052-3,490,040,525 = 1,321,017,247,000 UZS. Income from investment activity was 560 245 214 thousand UZS, the expenditure was 1 564 824 562 thousand UZS. Net cash flow amounted to -1 004 579 848 thousand UZS. Cash flow from financial activities amounted to 562,456,324 thousand UZS and the amount was 537,599 198 thousand UZS. According to the forecast of net profit of the company on total cash flow 8 554 895 644 thousand sums, the cost is 6907055440 thousand sums, respectively.
Bankruptcy (Economic Insolvency) is an economic court recognized by the debtor's inability to fully satisfy creditors' claims on monetary obligations and (or) to perform their obligations on mandatory payments in full. But the scandal is not a process that is not just a trial. Each enterprise should analyze its financial status, its expectations and take action against it. Various models that are widely used in international forecasting in predicting economic uncertainty system. Based on these models, the stratification of economic stagnation in enterprises, the availability of internal capacities to prevent them, and the tactical decisions to mitigate the consequences of vulnerability and financial recovery by assessing the financial coefficients of enterprises. Economic vulnerability and capacities can also be identified and analyzed based on the reported balance sheet and financial statement data.
Conclusions: As a result of the assessment of the financial statements and the changes that have been made in their joint ventures, it is possible to conclude that all the indicators in the enterprise were out of the economic stratum. For example: the solvency unit has achieved the highest results. His statement was equal to 4.71.At the same time, assets' equity capital was 0.36. Total profitability of the asset was 8.8%, its profitability - 44.2%. Depreciation of fixed assets was 29.2%. This means that 60.8 percent of the vehicle's main engine is available. Impact of Internal and External Factors on Forecasting of Financial Situation Cloisters' financial position, financial results and their future The formula or model that provides 100% accuracy in predicting expectations has not yet been developed. More than 90 percent of the forecast for financial condition and separate units of financial performance (solvency, liquidity, profitability, economic vulnerability, business activity, etc.) can be met. This is achieved only if the accuracy of the external impact (tax, customs, long-term changes in credit policy, inflation adjustment, settlement and contractual relationships) is met.
It may be structured into units that affect the entity's future financial condition, financial results and future cash flows, as follows: 1. Forms of business: external and work; 2. On the importance of the result: basic and secondary; 3. On the content: simple and complex; 4. For the period of operation: permanent and temporary factors The most common form of contamination is compounding internal and external factors. Internal factors are factors affecting the organization, external factors are factors that are not dependent upon the organization itself, its activities and results.

Examples include: - Changes and dynamics of demand for consumers; - government account, finance and credit, tax policy; - severity of competition;

- Political stability; - The situation in the leasing market; - Inflation and others. In the forecasting of financial statements, apart from external factors, first of all, it is necessary to focus on internal factors. There are opportunities to change these factors and to influence their impact. Internal factors include: - Structure and structure of services rendered or rendered; - Production technology and management model; - Network syllabus of the company; - Property and financial resources, their structure and structure, management strategy; - productivity and efficiency of work- the formation of the capital flow, its appropriate form of income and expenditure;

- management quality;

- volume and quality of investments.

It is difficult and difficult to calculate the impact of factors affecting the financial position, results and units affecting the cash flows. Analysts have to rely on their own approach and principles. Therefore, when calculating the impact levels, each learning unit needs to be evaluated in the alignment, affiliation and affiliation.

Analysts have to rely on their own approach and principles. In calculating the impacts of these impacts, each learning unit needs to be evaluated in a separate, dependent, and participatory manner.