Anis H. Bajrektarevic is a Professor and a Chairperson for International Law and Global

ECONOMIC POTENTIAL AND CHALLENgES
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Tajik
economy crumbled. Key trade goods were and
are cotton and aluminum, but these products
have not yet reached the level of output which
they had before the country’s independence,
and thus, have not made a significant economic
impact. Tajikistan’s GDP barely managed to
reach pre-independence levels in recent years.
Tajikistan’s GDP growth rate is 7.4% and its cur-
rent GDP per capita is 1,036.58 (est. 2013) USD;
its GDP is $8.508 billion (2013). According to
2014 World Bank figures, Tajikistan growth
slipped to 6.7% after a decrease in remittances
(declining two percent) and weaker “industrial
export growth” affected by lower prices for cot-
ton and aluminum.[76] Tajikistan’s GDP is well
below the other Central Asian states making it
the poorest Central Asian state. Economic re-
forms nearly only took place in the small and
medium business sector, consequently large in-
dustrial enterprises faced lacks of financial and
professional resources, which resulted in a dras-
tic decrease of production.
Tajikistan is relatively unattractive to foreign in-
vestors due to its proximity to conflict areas,
the adversarial business climate, and the lack of
financial and professional background of local
counterparts, political bureaucracy, and wide-
spread and rampant corruption. Tajikistan relies
heavily on foreign assistance mainly from Rus-
sia, China, and Iran and international financial 
institutions and organizations such as the EU
and the World Bank. 
Poor governance and the government’s failure
to implement banking and political reform
aimed at tackling corruption remain the main
obstacles for Tajikistan to develop a friendly for-
eign investment atmosphere. Micro financing
organizations and efforts continue to grow, “are
typically well governed, and are filling many
gaps left by the weak banking sector.”[77] Tajik-
istan’s black market is also growing which can
be attributed to its currency controls which
have boosted its underground economy
caused by the lack of remittances (because of
the Russian economy and Tajikistan’s economy
is dependent on remittances), “with less cur-
rency flowing into the country, the Tajik somoni
has slid almost 17 percent so far this year, to
6.23 somoni per dollar, according to the official
exchange rate” and were accused of speculat-
ing on the currency which caused financial ex-
changes to shut down.[78]
This has forced many to trade currency illegally
and there are customers because of the high
demand and that banks are not selling hard
currency and “economists warn that Tajikistan
could emulate neighboring Uzbekistan, where
the difference between the National Bank rate
and the black market rate has grown to over 40
percent.”[79]