Angus deaton

Figure 1. 

Percent of People Surviving from Age 40 to 60, 1980–2015

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COMMENTS and DISCUSSION 

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life expectancy for the elderly U.S. population has actually increased since 

the late 1990s, in contrast to the nonelderly population. What is happening 

for the working-age population is not the same as what is happening for the 

elderly population.

My figure 3 shows this more directly. The figure plots the relative change 

in mortality for white non-Hispanics from 1999 through 2015 for each five-

year age group from 40–44 to 70–74. Mortality in 1999 is normalized to 1;  

the line then traces out how mortality changes for each cohort relative to 

that base year.

For people in their prime working-age years, mortality has actually 

increased over time. For example, people age 40–44, 45–49, and 50–54 

have all seen mortality rates rise relative to their value in 1999. This is the 

fact that Case and Deaton identify. Similarly, for people age 55–59, the net 

change in mortality has only been a small decrease.

However, as one proceeds to older ages, there is more of a sustained 

mortality reduction. For people age 60–64, there has been a marked,