Analysis of factors that herald an economic crisis

Leading Economic Index (LEI)

Leading economic index still positive signal
The Conference Board's data shows the U.S. economy is still healthy but growth may be starting to moderate

LEI decreased in June for the first time in 2019, but it’s not yet time to panic. Year-over-year growth hasn’t been negative, though it does appear to have levelled off. The index posted no change from April to May, and between March and April, the index only grew by 0.1 percent to 111.8.

6. 
   Gross domestic product
   

The expansion continues
The U.S. economy grew by 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019, according to a preliminary reading from the Department of Commerce.

A recession basically means that the economy isn’t growing — and the barometer of economic growth is a measure called gross domestic product (GDP). This means it’s worth monitoring this quarterly data because any signs of a faltering economy are bound to show up here.
The U.S. economy grew by 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019 and expanded by 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019, according to the Department of Commerce. The Federal Reserve’s long-run growth potential for the U.S. economy is at 1.9 percent, according to its Summary of Economic Projections updated in June.