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 Scenario‑  based  analysis

 is a useful approach to discussing alternative visions of the future 

prior to objective setting. Lynch (2000) explains that  scenario-  based analysis is concerned 

with possible models of the future of an organisation’s environment. He says:

The aim is not to predict, but to explore a set of possibilities; scenarios take different 

 situations with different starting points.

Lynch distinguishes qualitative  scenario-  based planning from quantitative prediction based 

on demand analysis, for example. In a digital business perspective, scenarios that could be 

explored include:

1 

One player in our industry becomes dominant through use of the Internet.

2 

Major customers do not adopt e-commerce due to organisational barriers.