2-laboratoriya ishi Juftlik regressiyaning chiziqli tenglamasi. Chiziqli regressiya koeffitsiyentlarining statistik tahlili. Oddiy regressiya modellarda ishonch va bashorat intervallari

Yillar	Jami ishlab chiqarish sanoati (Y)
To’qimachilik mahsulotini ishlab chiqarish (X)
2010	91,7	24,6
2011	91,7	24,6
2012	91,7	24,6
2013	91,7	24,6
2014	91,7	24,6
2015	91,7	24,6
2016	91,3	25
2017	92,9	24,7
2018	96,3	24,3
2019	95,7	19,6
2020	95,5	21,4
2021	96,7	22,4

Manba: http://www.xorazmstat.uz

bunda:
Y – Jjami ishalab chiqarish sanoati

X – To’qimachilik mahsulotini ishlab chiqarish
Xorazm viloyatidadagi ishlab chiqarish sanoatidagi , toqimachilik mahsuloloti ishlab chiqarish (X) ni reolatsiya koifisenti
r=51,205


Regression Analysis: Y versus X

The regression equation is

y = 115,0 - 0,9192 x

S = 1,57087 R-Sq = 51,2% R-Sq(adj) = 46,4%

Predictor Coef SE Coef T P

Constant 28,297 3,144 9,00 0,000
X4 0,64739 0,04363 14,84 0,000

S = 4,41838 R-Sq = 85,6% R-Sq(adj) = 85,2%

Oddiy regressiya tenglamasi quyidagicha:

Y = 115,0-0,9192X
Endi bu regressiya tenglamasi yordamida bashorat va ishonch oraliqlarini topaylik. Agar X=95 bo‘lsa ushbu universitet reytingini bashorat qilish va uning uchun bashorat va ishonch oraliqlarini qaraylik. Minitab dasturidan foydalanamiz.
Source DF Adj SS Adj MS F-Value P-Value
Regression 1 25,9205 25,9205 10,50 0,009
x 1 25,9205 25,9205 10,50 0,009
Error 10 24,6762 2,4676
Lack-of-Fit 5 24,6762 4,9352 * *
Pure Error 5 0,0000 0,0000
Total 11 50,5967
Model Summary

S R-sq R-sq(adj) R-sq(pred)

1,57087 51,23% 46,35% 18,73%
Coefficients

Term Coef SE Coef T-Value P-Value VIF

Constant 115,00 6,74 17,07 0,000
x -0,919 0,284 -3,24 0,009 1,00
Regression Equation

y = 115,00 - 0,919 x

Fits and Diagnostics for Unusual Observations

Obs y Fit Resid Std Resid

9 96,300 92,665 3,635 2,43 R
10 95,700 96,985 -1,285 -1,35 X

R Large residual

X Unusual X


Prediction for y

Regression Equation

y = 115,00 - 0,919 x

Variable Setting
x 95
Fit SE Fit 95% CI 95% PI
27,6802 20,2260 (-17,3862; 72,7465) (-17,5219; 72,8822) XX

Natijalarni tahlil qilsak, agar X=95 bo‘lsa ushbu universitet reytingi 86,563 ga teng bo‘lishini bashorat qilish mumkin ekan. Va bu bashorat uchun 95% ishonchlilik bilan bashorat va ishonch oraliqlari quyidagiga teng:

Ishonch oralig‘i (-17,3862;72,7465),
Bashorat oralig‘i (-17,5219;72,8822 Universitet tadqiqotiga qo‘yilgan ball X va universitet reytingi Yo‘rtasidagi determinatsiya koeffitsiyenti R²=85,6 ga teng. Bu miqdor universitet reytingining 85,6% ini universitet tadqiqotiga qo‘yilgan ball bilan tushunirish mumkin degani.
C:\Users\comp tgtu\Documents\Saparboyev J.docx).
95% ishonchlilik bilan bashorat va ishonch oraliqlarining grafik tasvirini ham ko‘rishimiz mumkin.